辽宁评分与多种无创评分系统预测肝硬化患者高危食管静脉曲张及出血或再出血的价值比较
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1.广西医科大学第一附属医院;2.广西医科大学第一附属医院消化内镜病区;3.广西医科大学第一附属医院消化内科

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国家自然科学基金(81960119,81660107)


Comparison between Liaoning scoring system and three other non‑invasive scoring systems in the prediction of high‑risk esophageal varices and hemorrhage or re‑hemorrhage in patients with liver cirrhosis
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National Natural Science Foundation of China (81960119, 81660107)

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    摘要:

    目的 比较辽宁评分与终末期肝病模型(model for end‑stage liver disease, MELD)、终末期肝病血清钠模型(model for end‑stage liver disease‑Na,MELD‑Na)及Blatchford评分在预测肝硬化患者高危食管静脉曲张(esophageal varices, EVs)、1年内出血或再出血及输血治疗方面的价值。方法 收集2018年1月—2019年9月间因肝硬化于广西医科大学第一附属医院就诊,首次行内镜检查证实有EVs的170例患者的临床资料,计算首次内镜检查时的辽宁评分、MELD、MELD‑Na及Blatchford评分,并随访1年记录出血或再出血情况。绘制受试者工作特征(receiver operating characteristic, ROC)曲线并应用曲线下面积(area under curve, AUC)评价4种评分系统预测肝硬化患者高危EVs、1年内出血或再出血及输血治疗的准确性,获取最佳诊断界值,并以最佳诊断界值分组,比较高危EVs占比、首次内镜检查后1年内出血或再出血的比例。结果 辽宁评分预测肝硬化患者内镜下高危EVs的最佳诊断界值为0.45,AUC为0.702(95%CI:0.612~0.781,P<0.01),明显优于MELD、MELD‑Na及Blatchford评分(AUC分别为0.593、0.648、0.610)。辽宁评分≥0.45组及<0.45组的高危EVs患者比例分别为71.8%(89/124)及34.8%(16/46),两组差异有统计学意义(χ2=19.442,P<0.01)。辽宁评分预测患者首次内镜检查后1年内出血或再出血的AUC为0.680(95%CI: 0.595~0.765,P<0.01),高于MELD、MELD‑Na及Blatchford评分(AUC分别为0.605、0.615、0.598)。Blatchford评分预测患者住院期间输血治疗的AUC为0.775(95%CI:0.687~0.863,P<0.01),明显优于MELD、MELD‑Na、辽宁评分(AUC分别为0.653、0.719、0.631)。结论 辽宁评分在预测肝硬化患者高危EVs及首次内镜检查后1年内出血或再出血方面,优于MELD、MELD‑Na、Blatchford评分系统。Blatchford评分能有效预测肝硬化合并EVs患者住院期间是否需输血治疗。

    Abstract:

    Objective To compare the value of Liaoning scoring system, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), model for end-stage liver disease-Na (MELD-Na) and Blatchford score in predicting high-risk esophageal varices (EVs), hemorrhage or re-hemorrhage within 1 year and blood transfusion treatment in cirrhotic patients. Methods Clinical data of 170 patients with esophageal varices confirmed by endoscopy from January 2018 to September 2019 were recorded. Liaoning score, MELD, MELD-Na score and Blatchford score were calculated when the first endoscopy was performed. These patients were followed up, and hemorrhage or re-hemorrhage within 1 year was recorded. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was drawn and the area under curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the accuracy of 4 scoring systems in predicting high-risk EVs, hemorrhage or re-hemorrhage within 1 year after the first endoscopy and blood transfusion. Cut-off values were obtained, and groups divided by cut-off values were compared for the proportion of high-risk EVs and hemorrhage or re-hemorrhage. Results The cut-off value of high-risk EVs in patients with cirrhosis predicted by Liaoning score was 0.45, and the AUC was 0.702 (95%CI:0.612-0.781, P<0.01), superior to MELD, MELD-Na and Blatchford score (AUC were 0.593, 0.648, 0.610, respectively). The proportion of high-risk EVs in Liaoning score ≥0.45 and <0.45 were 71.8% (89/124) and 34.8% (16/46) with significant differences (χ2=19.442, P<0.01). The AUC of Liaoning score for predicting hemorrhage or re-hemorrhage within 1 year was 0.680 (95%CI: 0.595-0.765, P<0.01), superior to MELD, MELD-Na and Blatchford score (AUC were 0.605,0.615,0.598, respectively). AUC of Blatchford score for predicting blood transfusion was 0.775 (95%CI:0.687-0.863, P<0.01), superior to MELD, MELD-Na and Liaoning score (AUC were 0.653, 0.719, 0.631, respectively). Conclusion Liaoning score can predict high-risk EVs, hemorrhage or re-hemorrhage within 1 year after the first endoscopy in patients with cirrhosis and is superior to MELD, MELD-Na and Blatchford score. Blatchford score can effectively predict whether cirrhosis patients with EVs need blood transfusion.

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邓泽平,覃山羽,姜海行.辽宁评分与多种无创评分系统预测肝硬化患者高危食管静脉曲张及出血或再出血的价值比较[J].中华消化内镜杂志,2022,39(5):388-393.

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  • 收稿日期:2020-10-30
  • 最后修改日期:2022-02-09
  • 录用日期:2020-11-24
  • 在线发布日期: 2022-02-10
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