预测高龄早期胃癌患者治疗方式选择的评分系统初探
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大连医科大学附属第一医院

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Scoring system for predicting treatment options of elderly patients with early gastric cancer
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the First Affiliated Hospital of Dalian Medical University

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    摘要:

    目的 探寻影响75岁以上高龄早期胃癌患者生存预后的危险因素,建立一个指导高龄早期胃癌患者治疗方式选择的预测评分系统。方法 收集2016年1月至2023年1月于大连医科大学附属第一医院内镜中心就诊并接受胃镜检查、内镜黏膜下剥离术(endoscopic submucosal dissection,ESD)、外科手术或保守治疗的早期胃癌患者临床资料进行回顾性分析,寻找影响患者预后的危险因素,建立一个预测评分系统,以评分划分低危组和高危组,并比较两组不同治疗方式的高龄早期胃癌患者的总生存率。结果 共有180例患者纳入研究,其中ESD治疗50例,外科手术97例,保守治疗33例。Cox比例风险模型多因素分析显示,查尔森合并指数(Charlson comorbidity index,CCI)>2(P=0.014,HR=2.411,95%CI:1.196~4.864)、预后营养指数(prognostic nutritional index,PNI)≤43.275(P=0.011,HR=2.294,95%CI:1.205~4.365)、合并多原发癌(P=0.004,HR=2.797,95%CI:1.401~5.585)为影响患者生存预后的危险因素,通过加权评分将CCI>2、PNI≤43.275、合并多原发癌各分配1分,受试者工作特征曲线确定评分的最佳截断值为1.5(P<0.001,曲线下面积为0.726)。以评分≤1分和评分≥2分分为低危组和高危组,在低危组患者中,ESD、外科手术、保守治疗的总体生存率分别为95.1%、87.5%、61.5%,ESD、外科手术相较保守治疗差异有统计学意义(P=0.003),而ESD和外科手术差异无统计学意义(P=0.466);在高危组患者中,ESD、外科手术、保守治疗的总体生存率分别为55.6%、64.7%、30.0%,差异无统计学意义(P=0.152)。结论 CCI、PNI、合并多原发癌是影响老年早期胃癌患者生存预后的危险因素;以这3个危险因素建立的评分系统总分3分,评分≤1分时,选择ESD或外科手术;评分≥2分时,保守治疗可能使患者更加受益。

    Abstract:

    Objective To identify risk factors affecting survival outcomes in elderly patients (≥75 years) with early gastric cancer (EGC) and establish a predictive scoring system to aid in treatment decision‑making. Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on EGC patients who underwent gastroscopy, endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD), surgical resection, or conservative treatment at the Endoscopy Center of the First Affiliated Hospital of Dalian Medical University between January 2016 and January 2023. Clinical data were analyzed to identify prognostic risk factors and develop a predictive scoring system. The low‑risk group and high‑risk group were divided according to the scores, and the overall survival of patients who received different treatments were compared between two groups. Results A total of 180 patients were included, of whom 50 underwent ESD, 97 surgery, and 33 conservative treatment. Cox proportional risk model multivariate analysis identified three independent risk factors for survival: Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) >2 (P=0.014, HR=2.411, 95%CI: 1.196-4.864), prognostic nutritional index (PNI) ≤43.275 (P=0.011, HR=2.294, 95%CI: 1.205-4.365), and presence of multiple primary cancers (P=0.004, HR=2.797, 95%CI: 1.401-5.585). A weighted scoring system assigned 1 point each for CCI>2, PNI≤43.275, and multiple primary cancers. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis determined an optimal cutoff score of 1.5 (P<0.001, area under curve=0.726). Patients were stratified into low-risk (score≤1) and high-risk (score≥2) groups. In the low-risk group, both ESD and surgical resection demonstrated superior overall survival compared with conservative treatment (95.1%, 87.5%, and 61.5%, respectively, P=0.003), with no significant difference between ESD and surgery (P=0.466). In the high-risk group, no statistically significant overall survival difference was observed among ESD, surgery, and conservative treatment (55.6%, 64.7%, and 30.0%, respectively, P=0.152). Conclusion CCI, PNI, and multiple primary cancers are critical prognostic factors for elderly EGC patients. The proposed scoring system (total 3 points) guides treatment decisions: ESD or surgery is recommended for low-risk patients (score≤1), while conservative management may benefit high-risk patients (score≥2).

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李睿博,石潇,宫爱霞.预测高龄早期胃癌患者治疗方式选择的评分系统初探[J].中华消化内镜杂志,2025,42(4):294-301.

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  • 收稿日期:2023-12-20
  • 最后修改日期:2025-04-04
  • 录用日期:2024-03-11
  • 在线发布日期: 2025-04-09
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